Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System

This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large‐scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district‐based SLFs, and circle‐shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions.     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.     

高层管理团队的异质性与企业绩效的实证研究

研究了我国企业所处行业的动态性对高层管理团队异质性与企业绩效关系的影响。采用我国深、沪两市356家上市公司2001~2002年的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,在我国企业中,高层管理团队职业经验异质性、年龄异质性与行业动态性的交互作用在各自对企业绩效的影响中起了负向的调节作用,进而对这种结果进行了具体的分析和讨论,并提出了未来研究的展望。     

系统症结辨识的模糊分析与应用

本文基于模糊因果网络分析,提出了系统症结辨识的一种新思路,实例研究了吉林省轻工业发展现状的主要症结所在．     

区域主导产业评价指标与数学模型

以现有研究成果为基础,建立了区域主导产业评价指标体系;基于灰色聚类的思想,提出了评价区域主导产业优度的数学模型-定权聚类评估模型,并对河南省武陟县工业主导产业选择进行了实证研究。     

基于能值理论的循环经济投入产出模型的理论探讨

投入产出技术是研究循环经济的有效方法,但由于实物型循环经济投入产出表各元素衡量单位不统一、产业环节划分过细等问题,导致实物表在实际应用中存在巨大障碍。本文在总结实物型循环经济投入产出表存在问题的基础上,从生态学角度对循环经济投入产出表的应用进行进一步的理论探讨;结合生态学能值理论构建了能值型循环经济投入产出表及分析模型。本文的创新在于将能值理论与循环经济研究相结合,从而使生态学与经济方法得以有效结合。这在一定程度上进一步完善了循环经济投入产出理论,为定量化描述和分析循环经济系统提供了新的思路。     

基于可拓决策的环境安全预警模型及应用——以陕西省为例

预警模型的建立是环境安全预警的核心。针对环境安全多层次、多维度、动态性的特性,基于物元分析建立环境安全物元模型,利用可拓集合和关联函数,进行安全等级划分、预警指标阈值确定、安全度计算和安全状态判定,建立基于综合决策的环境安全预警模型。通过对陕西省2010年环境安全预警的实例分析,表明其环境安全处于轻警状态,且具有向无警状态转化的趋势,与实际情况基本相符,为环境安全管理和风险控制提供了决策依据。     

区域知识资源配置结构和谐指数测度分析

通过分析知识资源配置结构和谐的内涵和构成,构建国家区域知识资源配置结构和谐指数测量的二阶段模型,以2000年至2007年我国31个省市的知识分布为研究对象,结合熵权TOPSIS和扩展的基尼系数方法,测量我国区域人力资本知识资源结构和谐指数、知识资源投入运行结构和谐指数、区域知识经济环境和谐指数和区域总体知识资源配置结构和谐指数,主要得出以下结论:人力资本知识资源结构较为和谐,指数变化幅度较小,但没有优化趋势;知识资源投入运行结构非常和谐,且愈趋优化;区域知识经济环境和谐指数相对最不和谐,区域间存在较大差异;区域总体知识资源配置结构较为和谐,但变化幅度较大,尚没有显著优化趋向。     

基于特化系数的我国区域科技投入结构演变分析

在从跟随模仿向自主创新战略转变的背景下,政府科技投入已经成为战略性公共资源。本文运用特化系数测算了1999年至2006年我国八大经济区科技投入来源结构与执行结构的演变。研究结果表明:1999年至2006年,我国科技投入来源结构呈现出从政府主体向企业主体转变的趋势,南部沿海和东部沿海企业来源资金实现了从非特化向特化的转变;科技投入执行结构呈现出从大中型企业和科研机构双主体向企业单主体转变的趋势,南部沿海企业执行资金实现了从非特化向特化的转变。     

总承包工程建设供应链利润分配模型研究

利润分配是工程建设供应链的重要问题.本文以总承包工程市场为背景,基于收益共享理论和Stackel-berg博弈求解方法,建立了总承包商和分包商利润分配模型,得出为获得额外激励奖金二者所愿意付出的最大努力水平,及该奖金在总承包商和分包商之间的最优分配比例.考虑到总承包商和分包商之间的能力差异会对利润分配产生影响,在此基础之上,分析供应链、总承包商及分包商利润函数随奖金分配比例的变化趋势及产生的原因,最后对模型的应用进行算例分析,并画出函数图像,定量而直观地证实了文中提出的结论.